I still love Apple :)

In December, I mistimed my trade on Apple. What happened? It went over 200 a week later and I sold for a 10 day profit of approximately $10,000.

I was pretty bearish following that, so I waited until Friday at around 3pm and bought back in. Even bigger than before, but with a little less risk.

What happens? It goes down some more today :) Actually, I'm thinking of buying more. I wish I had been awake when it hit the 170's. I'm not on the East Coast right now, so I was asleep during the huge drop this morning.

Still, at around 175, Apple is definitely a buy, in my opinion.

Mac World... Big time earnings...

That's going to send it up again. I'm sure it will hit 185 or higher this week prior to the bullish Mac World. Then, maybe it will fall next week, but the week after it should hit at least 190 and I would say odds are it goes over 200 before earnings.

Then, the earnings. That will be a telling point. I'm sure based on everything I've followed that they will beat all estimates. Probably by a lot. They had several of the top sellers on Amazon. They have jumped almost a full percent in overall market share in Mac vs. Windows. The iPhone is accounted in a way that ensures it helps earnings all year. I would be surprised if they didn't beat the highest estimate by a couple cents per share.

However, Apple is always super-conservative about their estimates. So, unless they think they will explode again this coming quarter, which is unlikely due to the many other bad economic indicators, they will probably be extra conservative with their estimates.

Combine the results this quarter with their high probability of a conservative forward estimate and I'd say Apple drops a bit after earnings.

So, I'm planning to hold until just before earnings. Then, depending on the price, I'll sell some to all of my position.

And, this week, if it spikes over 190, I'll sell some also as generally AFTER an event there is a little downward pressure.


Overall though, I still think Apple goes over 210 and stays there this year and I'm betting heavily that it does :)

God Bless!