Now even I'm worried about Apple!

Apple has sunk and the way it has sunk seems to indicate that it's 40 P/E is just not going to stand in today's market.

I think Apple will have a great quarter, their best ever. I estimate around $1.85 per share, which beats all estimates. However, they will likely lowball all forward estimates to the point where the stock will still probably go down. How much is the question. If they go down and stay in the 155+ range that will actually be super-bullish and I will then have renewed faith in Apple. If they fall under 155 though, I think this will be the year Apple's P/E goes from 40 (current) to 20 and the stock cuts off another 25% to 120 by the end of the year.

This earnings will be hugely important. If they survive it, they have a ton of bullishness on the horizon with deals in China, Japan, etc. on the foreseeable horizon. Even though talks broke down with both initially, they will likely happen soon anyway as it is in both company's best interest.

God Bless!

Apple Tanking :(

Apple surprised me and went much lower than I hoped.

And then in after hours it is down even lower.

I, now, wouldn't be surprised if it was under $160 for a while tomorrow.


I'm still bullish long term, but, honestly, not as bullish. I previously would have thought there was no chance Apple wouldn't be up in a year. But, now I think it is possible that it could be down the entire year.

The main reason is the Price-To-Earnings ratio of Apple. That gives a lot of potential "compression" of the stock price even if Apple does reasonably well.

So, I may sell part of my position for a loss simply to avoid a horid loss later.

And, that will still put me up overall.

I will see how it goes.

Earnings are next week and likely to be high but accompanied with a warning that will likely send the stock down. Down from this point would be painful.

God Bless!

Update on blogs I follow

I figured I'd put shout outs to the blogs that I regularly follow:

worshipwell.blogspot.com (The Perimeter Church blog.)

http://flyingwabbit.blogspot.com/ (A technical analysis trader that I just found. This guy has some pretty decent analysis.)

http://beanieville.blogspot.com/ (Some good stock info. He tends to focus on option buying.)

http://bradfallon.com (A former business partner of mine that has some good info about Search Engine Optimization)

http://freeiqtips.com (A guy I met doing business. Dan has some good info about affiliate marketing.)


No longer following these as they have apparently retired.

http://explosive-stocks.blogspot.com

http://lvblog.blogspot.com

More skiing and good trading!

I skied again today. It was fun again, although it snowed all day, so it was pretty cold late in the day.

In trading news, I did really well with another buy on Apple. I put in a low order and just let it ride. Then, wehn I returned from skiing I saw that it had executed and I was up nicely thanks to the end of the day uptrend.

I anticipate strength in Apple until MacWorld, but I will close out my position tomorrow most likely since I have plenty of risk on Apple with my call spread :)

I'll keep the rest of my trading money for short term low-risk plays.

God Bless!

Ski Trip!

Well, today I will be skiing for the first time in 3 year and only the 2nd time in 6 years!

It should be fun :)


Yesterday turned out to be a good day for some short term trades. I did 3 complete buys and sells. In other words, I purchased and sold within the same day. I don't normally do that, but with the volatility and the fact that the stocks I like were near what I felt was a low-risk point, I was able to do so. I netted $1,000 in trading profit. Of course, with Apple down, I was still down in "fake dollars", but it still felt good and Apple showed that the 170 range is a good level of resistance with 74 million shares going and it bouncing within the 170 to 180 range.

God Bless.

I still love Apple :)

In December, I mistimed my trade on Apple. What happened? It went over 200 a week later and I sold for a 10 day profit of approximately $10,000.

I was pretty bearish following that, so I waited until Friday at around 3pm and bought back in. Even bigger than before, but with a little less risk.

What happens? It goes down some more today :) Actually, I'm thinking of buying more. I wish I had been awake when it hit the 170's. I'm not on the East Coast right now, so I was asleep during the huge drop this morning.

Still, at around 175, Apple is definitely a buy, in my opinion.

Mac World... Big time earnings...

That's going to send it up again. I'm sure it will hit 185 or higher this week prior to the bullish Mac World. Then, maybe it will fall next week, but the week after it should hit at least 190 and I would say odds are it goes over 200 before earnings.

Then, the earnings. That will be a telling point. I'm sure based on everything I've followed that they will beat all estimates. Probably by a lot. They had several of the top sellers on Amazon. They have jumped almost a full percent in overall market share in Mac vs. Windows. The iPhone is accounted in a way that ensures it helps earnings all year. I would be surprised if they didn't beat the highest estimate by a couple cents per share.

However, Apple is always super-conservative about their estimates. So, unless they think they will explode again this coming quarter, which is unlikely due to the many other bad economic indicators, they will probably be extra conservative with their estimates.

Combine the results this quarter with their high probability of a conservative forward estimate and I'd say Apple drops a bit after earnings.

So, I'm planning to hold until just before earnings. Then, depending on the price, I'll sell some to all of my position.

And, this week, if it spikes over 190, I'll sell some also as generally AFTER an event there is a little downward pressure.


Overall though, I still think Apple goes over 210 and stays there this year and I'm betting heavily that it does :)

God Bless!