Three Months Until Marathon

Three Months.



That sounds like a long time. Well, that's how long I have until I run my first AND ONLY marathon. I figure that eventually I will say, "I wish I had run a marathon." You know, just so I could check it off my life's accomplishment list. So, at 36 I figure I really only have a few more years where it will be possible to do without severe trauma.



My training regime is a lot different than most people's would be due to the fact that I have problems with knee, ankle, and foot soreness. Instead of running 5 days a week, which I'm guessing is the normal strategy for those attempting to run a marathon, I'll be running only 2 times per week and biking and swimming 3 times per week.



Naturally, my pure running strength will suffer. I'm ok with that. I'm not trying to run the marathon fast. In fact, I only want to finish in 7 hours, which is the time limit. So, I'll be in good enough shape to do that by then. I won't have many running miles under my belt, but I'll have enough to will myself through. Or maybe not. Who knows. I've never run 26.2 miles and I don't intend to do so until that potentially fateful day.



God Bless.

Randy Pausch

As many of you know, Randy Pausch died this week.



The way he handled his final few months brings me to tears. Joyful and sorrowful tears simultaneously. Joyful because he was a guy that rose to prominence for doing something good. Sorrowful because this guy is terrific and we need more guys like that, and sorrowful because I don't feel like I'm taking my "final days" by the horns like he did. Sure, I have far more final days, but they are final.



I, and everyone out there, has very few days. I, for one, have squandered at least two-thirds of mine. Please, forgive me Lord Jesus. I pray that I won't squander such a large percentage going forward.



God Bless and follow Randy's example. Sieze the day.

Batman and I finally called one correctly

My wife and I saw Batman yesterday. It was one of the best movies of all time. I highly recommend it. It is probably too scary for kids but it was really good and my wife liked it a lot also.

In other news, I was finally right with one of my shorter term trades. I sold my Apple shares so that I could buy them back when it dropped and it actually did. I wish I'd done that on Bank of America last month :)

I've been spending the last several weeks setting up an SMS server and it finally looks like it is coming along.

One of these days, I'll focus on these blog posts instead of 4 completely non related topics all written in a boring fashion. Until then, who cares since no one other than me reads it anyway :)


God Bless!

Text Messages, past or future?

I've been programming non stop for about 5 weeks now and I've done several pretty cool things. For one, as I said earlier, I have a completely automated blog post system!

Another thing that I'm really proud of is an SMS message system. I have a system where I can send an SMS message and it will reply to me with information that I specify. So, I can check on any of our companies from anywhere. I don't even need "mobile web", I can now get it all via a simple text message!

But, is this "old tech" and all I've succeeded in doing something that would have been cool 5 years ago? I don't think so. Everyone I've talked to about it has thought it was a pretty good thing.

I like it, and that's probably the most important :)



God Bless!

Bought the iPhone 3G

My wife and I waited a mear 1.5 hours to get our phones. In all honestly if you have the original phone it isn't worth it to pay more and get almost nothing more for the money.

You get 3G which is good if you are actually using it a lot, but that's the only thing new. Everything else comes with the software update.

We upgraded primarily due to the fact that our phones were in pretty bad repair. But, to be honest, I probably would have upgraded anyway :)

God Bless

Figuring out how to work with Google Apps

I spent some time to get Google Apps to communicate directly with my account.

This post, is actually created by me at the command line of my server rather than via the direct Blogger site!

I've done this so that will be easier for me to keep My Blog and "blogger" in sync more easily.

I'm not sure why I'm keeping both going anyway, but I figure it's like owning multiple domain names, no real value, but if people like me didn't do it GoDaddy would go out of business :)

God Bless

Good Week

Stacie figured out how to set up her own web site, StacieTrottier.com. Naturally it is loaded with wedding pictures :)

It was a good week with Garett’s (GarettBerg.com) kids going to camp again this week. They are staying with us for 6 weeks during the summer. It has been fun having them around but definitely different than having the house to ourselves.

Work is going very well, we just started setting up a new client and that is going really well. We have greatly streamlined the process of creating new client accounts and it has really paid off for us.

I am starting to update my main website, BarryTrottier.com, come see it in a couple weeks :)

God Bless

I'm back to posting!

I have taken a long hiatus from posting anything, but I'm beginning again. I will be posting at least weekly now.

I'm posting on my "own" blog blog.BarryTrottier.com as well the "blogspot" one, barrytrot.blogspot.com.

A brief recap of the time since Feb 4, 2008:
I was doing really well in the stock market until June. I had a horrific June and so far July has been bad as well.

My wife Stacie and I are now approved for adoption! If you know anyone that is looking to choose an adoption plan, go to Bethany. We are on the 3rd page of the list of families.

Business is going well, we have been hard at work and have a lot of new and really cool stuff that will be coming out very soon.

Thanks and God Bless!

Barry Trottier's official web site

Best Superbowl I never watched!

I didn't watch the Super Bowl yesterday. It had 2 teams that I didn't care about, and 1 team that was about to be granted the permanent status of "Best Team Ever, Period". No other team had ever come close to that title in any sport. The 72-10 Bulls were "great" and "one of the best teams ever". The several perfect season UCLA teams, the last perfect Indiana team, they were "great" and "one of the best teams ever". Even "Tiger Woods" and "Roger Federer" are "great" and "one of the best ever".

In other words, no one in any sport, no team in any sport, had ever held the undisputed "best team ever" title, no debate allowed.

I was dreading this title being handed to the Patriots, a team I don't like anyway.

Then, the Giants won. History is saved. The debate of best team ever no longer even contains the Patriots because now they aren't even the best team this year :)

Thanks, Giants. You saved the whole earth.

God Bless!

Now even I'm worried about Apple!

Apple has sunk and the way it has sunk seems to indicate that it's 40 P/E is just not going to stand in today's market.

I think Apple will have a great quarter, their best ever. I estimate around $1.85 per share, which beats all estimates. However, they will likely lowball all forward estimates to the point where the stock will still probably go down. How much is the question. If they go down and stay in the 155+ range that will actually be super-bullish and I will then have renewed faith in Apple. If they fall under 155 though, I think this will be the year Apple's P/E goes from 40 (current) to 20 and the stock cuts off another 25% to 120 by the end of the year.

This earnings will be hugely important. If they survive it, they have a ton of bullishness on the horizon with deals in China, Japan, etc. on the foreseeable horizon. Even though talks broke down with both initially, they will likely happen soon anyway as it is in both company's best interest.

God Bless!

Apple Tanking :(

Apple surprised me and went much lower than I hoped.

And then in after hours it is down even lower.

I, now, wouldn't be surprised if it was under $160 for a while tomorrow.


I'm still bullish long term, but, honestly, not as bullish. I previously would have thought there was no chance Apple wouldn't be up in a year. But, now I think it is possible that it could be down the entire year.

The main reason is the Price-To-Earnings ratio of Apple. That gives a lot of potential "compression" of the stock price even if Apple does reasonably well.

So, I may sell part of my position for a loss simply to avoid a horid loss later.

And, that will still put me up overall.

I will see how it goes.

Earnings are next week and likely to be high but accompanied with a warning that will likely send the stock down. Down from this point would be painful.

God Bless!

Update on blogs I follow

I figured I'd put shout outs to the blogs that I regularly follow:

worshipwell.blogspot.com (The Perimeter Church blog.)

http://flyingwabbit.blogspot.com/ (A technical analysis trader that I just found. This guy has some pretty decent analysis.)

http://beanieville.blogspot.com/ (Some good stock info. He tends to focus on option buying.)

http://bradfallon.com (A former business partner of mine that has some good info about Search Engine Optimization)

http://freeiqtips.com (A guy I met doing business. Dan has some good info about affiliate marketing.)


No longer following these as they have apparently retired.

http://explosive-stocks.blogspot.com

http://lvblog.blogspot.com

More skiing and good trading!

I skied again today. It was fun again, although it snowed all day, so it was pretty cold late in the day.

In trading news, I did really well with another buy on Apple. I put in a low order and just let it ride. Then, wehn I returned from skiing I saw that it had executed and I was up nicely thanks to the end of the day uptrend.

I anticipate strength in Apple until MacWorld, but I will close out my position tomorrow most likely since I have plenty of risk on Apple with my call spread :)

I'll keep the rest of my trading money for short term low-risk plays.

God Bless!

Ski Trip!

Well, today I will be skiing for the first time in 3 year and only the 2nd time in 6 years!

It should be fun :)


Yesterday turned out to be a good day for some short term trades. I did 3 complete buys and sells. In other words, I purchased and sold within the same day. I don't normally do that, but with the volatility and the fact that the stocks I like were near what I felt was a low-risk point, I was able to do so. I netted $1,000 in trading profit. Of course, with Apple down, I was still down in "fake dollars", but it still felt good and Apple showed that the 170 range is a good level of resistance with 74 million shares going and it bouncing within the 170 to 180 range.

God Bless.

I still love Apple :)

In December, I mistimed my trade on Apple. What happened? It went over 200 a week later and I sold for a 10 day profit of approximately $10,000.

I was pretty bearish following that, so I waited until Friday at around 3pm and bought back in. Even bigger than before, but with a little less risk.

What happens? It goes down some more today :) Actually, I'm thinking of buying more. I wish I had been awake when it hit the 170's. I'm not on the East Coast right now, so I was asleep during the huge drop this morning.

Still, at around 175, Apple is definitely a buy, in my opinion.

Mac World... Big time earnings...

That's going to send it up again. I'm sure it will hit 185 or higher this week prior to the bullish Mac World. Then, maybe it will fall next week, but the week after it should hit at least 190 and I would say odds are it goes over 200 before earnings.

Then, the earnings. That will be a telling point. I'm sure based on everything I've followed that they will beat all estimates. Probably by a lot. They had several of the top sellers on Amazon. They have jumped almost a full percent in overall market share in Mac vs. Windows. The iPhone is accounted in a way that ensures it helps earnings all year. I would be surprised if they didn't beat the highest estimate by a couple cents per share.

However, Apple is always super-conservative about their estimates. So, unless they think they will explode again this coming quarter, which is unlikely due to the many other bad economic indicators, they will probably be extra conservative with their estimates.

Combine the results this quarter with their high probability of a conservative forward estimate and I'd say Apple drops a bit after earnings.

So, I'm planning to hold until just before earnings. Then, depending on the price, I'll sell some to all of my position.

And, this week, if it spikes over 190, I'll sell some also as generally AFTER an event there is a little downward pressure.


Overall though, I still think Apple goes over 210 and stays there this year and I'm betting heavily that it does :)

God Bless!